Le CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation), organisme australien de veille et de recherches scientifiques, a publié récemment un passionnant rapport titré "Our Future World: An analysis of global trends, shocks and scenarios" .
Un rapport à télécharger là et qui, donc, comme son nom l'indique, tente de définir les grandes tendances et les grandes menaces (voir infra) qui vont peser, ou risquent de peser, sur l'évolution de notre planète dans les décennies à venir.
Honnêtement il n'y a pas de grandes surprises, on y retrouve un certain nombre de thèmes que nous avons traiter récemment dans le cadre des Ateliers Transit-City, mais ce rapport a le mérite de la synthèse et de la clarté.
Mais si je vous parle de ce document aujourd'hui, c'est que le cabinet australien BRIDGE 8 "a foresight, industry development and science communications consultancy", s'est amusé, si on peut dire, à prendre les cinq grandes tendances définies par le CSIRO, pour en proposer des versions totalement inversées. Et il faut bien avouer que c'est assez stimulant, car complètement à contre-courant d'une certaine doxa dominante sur l'évolution du monde.
Voici leurs hypothèses de travail (plus là)
Megatrend 1: More from Less - A world of limited and depleting resources with increasing demand for those resources through economic growth and increases in population. A need to focus on resource use efficiency.
Anti-trend 1: Less from Less - A world of limited resources and depleting resources, with demand for those resources slowing as people appreciate these limitations. People are turning to multi-functional devices, reusable items and buying experiences and therefore require less products.
Megatrend 2: A Personal Touch – personalisation of products and services. Growth of the services sector of western economies is being followed by a second wave of innovation aimed at tailoring and targeting services.
Anti-trend 2: Reducing Choice – A backlash against too much choice. People shop at ALDI, make choices between only two suppliers (eg Mac or PC) and look for ways of simplifying decision-making.
Megatrend 3: Divergent Demographics – OECD countries are ageing and experiencing lifestyle and diet related health problems. The developing and underdeveloped worlds show high fertility rates and food scarcity.
Anti-trend 3: Growing Global Health – Improved treatments for chronic diseases lead to longer lifespans with better health outcomes. Education and application of technologies within local values in developing world also improve health outcomes and slow fertility growth.
Megatrend 4: On the move – Move to cities and people are increasingly mobile, changing jobs and careers more often, moving house more often, commuting further and travelling more often.
Anti-trend 4: Fulfilment – Young people are urged to follow passions, which lead to a range of jobs, but some consistency in career. New online technologies deliver improved face to face opportunities for connection, leading to less travel.
Megatrend 5: iWorld – digital and natural convergence. Everything in the natural world will have a digital counterpart. Computing power and memory storage are improving rapidly. Many more devices are getting connected to the internet.
Anti-trend 5: Opting out – Not everything will have a digital shadow if sections of the community are able to opt-out.
(source : BRIDGE 8 )
Concernant les megashocks définis par le CSIRO, vous les trouverez, eux, juste ci-dessous.
Megashocks
A global risk, or 'megashock', is a significant and sudden event; the timing and magnitude of which are very hard to predict.
The report identified eight megashocks relevant to Australian science:
- asset price collapse
- slowing Chinese economy
- oil and gas price spikes
- extreme climate change related weather
- pandemic
- biodiversity loss
- terrorism
- nanotechnology risks.
